Punch Drunk Wonderland

2013 Offseason Fantasy Football Outlook – The RB1s

Adrian PetersonThroughout the offseason I will be taking a look at the various options at each position. The focus today…those running backs I currently consider in the RB1 group. I consider an RB1 to be any of the top 12 backs in my Offseason Fantasy Rankings. These would be the top 12 running backs taken in a 2013 draft. However, keep in mind that these rankings will fluctuate throughout the offseason as we draw nearer to sweet 2013 NFL action.

Adrian Peterson

Peterson shocked the NFL and fantasy landscape in 2012, and he’s obviously going to be the top back taken in 2013 drafts. His 2012 numbers were unreal, so he’s bound to disappoint next season. However, even putting up three-fourths of that production would still be an amazing year.

Arian Foster

Foster had another solid season in 2012 and he will certainly be the 2nd back off the board in the 2013 drafts. The zone blocking scheme in Houston has done him well, and he is a true menace when it comes to the red zone. Look for another season of strong production from Foster.

Doug Martin

Despite Tampa Bay’s up and down season, Martin had an excellent rookie year. Martin finished the 2012 season tied with Arian Foster for the 2nd most fantasy points by a rusher. Going into 2013, the sky’s the limit for him and there’s no reason he shouldn’t be an elite RB1 on any roster.

C.J. Spiller

Spiller was a YAC machine in 2012 and he finished the season with the 7th most fantasy points among running backs. Fred Jackson may not be back with the Bills in 2013, but either way Spiller is going to see the work. He’s shown that he is a unique talent and needs to be on the field.

Marshawn Lynch

Beast Mode did it again in 2012. He put up 1,590 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. This is the kind of production you want from your RB1. He’s not going to get over 1,500 yards every season, but there’s no reason to think he won’t put up another 1,200+ yards and 6-10 TDs in 2013. Definitely worth the pick up.

Jamaal Charles

Charles’ solid comeback from knee reconstruction was completely eclipsed by the Adrian Peterson story in 2012. One year back from an ACL injury, he put up 1,509 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns. That’s great production from an RB coming back from an ACL injury. In the grand scheme of feature backs, Charles has been spared some wear and tear because his number of carries are fairly middle of the road for a 5th year back. That means he should still have fresh legs and in 2013 he should build on his production last season. Another boon is that he has good hands and is a solid receiver out of the backfield. That should play into the new offense with Andy Reid coming into town.

Ray Rice

Despite winning the Super Bowl, Rice had a down year in terms of rushing production. While gaining over 1,000 yards rushing, 2012 was his weakest season as the feature back in Baltimore. He should bounce back in 2013, and he remains an elite back.

LeSean McCoy

McCoy was one of the larger fantasy disappointments in 2012. Limited production, general woes of the Eagles offense, and injuries made for tough sledding all season. The good news is he’s the perfect kind of back for a team ran by Chip Kelly. Look for his role as a feature back to be used to its potential in 2013. McCoy should have a big jump in production from last year.

Trent Richardson

Richardson had an excellent rookie season, and he was one of few shining points for a young Browns team. Going into 2013, he likely won’t be burdened by some of the injury slow down that he saw early in 2012 and he stands to play a bigger role in the offense of Cleveland’s new coach, Rob Chudzinski.

Alfred Morris

Another excellent rookie in 2012, Morris had a great season in Washington’s young offense. He showed great promise and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a solid RB1 in 2013.

Matt Forte

Forte struggled in 2012 on an offense that had a rough time producing unless your name was Brandon Marshall. That said, he remains a serviceable RB1 going into 2013. The only question mark going forward will be his durability as he hasn’t managed to play a full season since 2010.

Chris Johnson

Johnson is a borderline RB1, but it stands to reason that he will bounce back in 2013. After a dismal start of the season, Johnson turned it on late in the 2012 season and showed flashes of the CJ of old. The Titans plan to keep Johnson the feature back going forward, but they seem to be putting pieces in place to make sure they have strong options to take a little of the load. They sound committed to the run and committed to Johnson for now, so he’s a bubble RB1 at this point.


K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...