Punch Drunk Wonderland

2013 Fantasy Wide Receivers – Catch Percentage

Randall CobbToday I’m looking at an important fantasy statistic for wide receivers. Heck, it’s an important all around statistic. Catch Percentage. The sortable table below shows the Top 20 wide receivers in 2012 with 50 receptions or more ordered by Catch Percentage. You can’t guarantee a player’s production will remain the same from one season to the next, but it’s a good measuring stick for potential.

An interesting note is the number of Top 10 fantasy scoring wide receivers that don’t appear in the Top 20 in Catch Percentage for 2012. 5 of the top 10 WRs in standard formats and 4 of the top 10 WRs in PPR formats found themselves at 65% or less. Names like Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, and Julio Jones show up on that list. In fact, VJax put up an abysmal catch percentage of 53% for the season. That just goes to show that most of the top tier receivers see tons of targets and are often huge center pieces in their offenses.  This is precisely why another VERY important statistic we look at when it comes to receivers is Targets, but that’s a topic for another day.

Player G Rec Targets Yards Catch % FP (std) FP (ppr)
Randall Cobb (GB) 15 80 102 954 78% 156.6 236.6
Percy Harvin (SEA) 9 62 81 677 77% 100.3 162.3
Jason Avant (PHI) 14 53 71 634 75% 62.9 115.9
Dexter McCluster (KC) 15 52 70 452 74% 57.7 109.7
Michael Crabtree 16 85 118 1105 72% 165.3 250.3
Wes Welker (DEN) 16 118 166 1254 71% 172.4 290.4
Eric Decker (DEN) 16 85 120 1064 71% 184.4 269.4
Andre Johnson (HOU) 16 112 159 1598 70% 183.8 295.8
Andrew Hawkins (CIN) 14 51 74 533 69% 79.8 130.8
James Jones (GB) 15 64 93 784 69% 162.4 226.4
Demaryius Thomas (DEN) 16 94 138 1430 68% 201.5 295.5
Malcolm Floyd (SD) 14 56 82 814 68% 111.4 167.4
Brandon Gibson (MIA) 15 51 75 691 68% 99.1 150.1
Antonio Brown (PIT) 13 66 98 787 67% 110.1 176.1
Sidney Rice (SEA) 15 50 75 748 67% 117.4 167.4
Dez Bryant (DAL) 16 92 137 1382 67% 208.7 300.7
Roddy White (ATL) 16 92 138 1351 67% 176.6 268.6
Kendall Wright (TEN) 15 64 95 626 67% 86.5 150.5
Danny Amendola (NE) 11 62 94 664 66% 84.2 146.2
Marquest Colston (NO) 16 83 126 1154 66% 173.9 256.9

There are a few interesting things to note with respect to these 2012 numbers. First of all, the excellent numbers by players like Percy Harvin and Danny Amendola that had significantly shortened seasons due to injury.  They put up some great numbers considering their limited time.  And further, many players have changed teams or could potentially be seeing changed roles going into 2013.  For example:

Percy Harvin (SEA): Harvin did have a productive yet shortened 2012 season for the Vikings. 2013 will see him trying to work his magic for the Seattle Seahawks. There is certainly potential for success and it seems having Russell Wilson at QB should be an upgrade from Christian Ponder. Health will be a concern and so will change of offensive system. At the end of the day, he should be a major player in the offense and you have to love Percy’s upside.

Wes Welker (DEN):  Welker certainly has to feel like a lucky fella after his stint in Miami. After being a scrappy workhorse for Tom Brady in New England he’s been shipped off to put in work for Peyton Manning and company. Things were working well for Denver’s passing game last season, and the addition of Welker should certainly be a boon to an already successful group. Welker is older and the system will be different, but there’s not much doubt he’ll see significant use for the Broncos.

Danny Amendola (NE):  Amendola was on fire during the middle of the 2012 season before he landed on IR. For 2013 he’s landed himself with the Patriots.  I guess we’ll see what makes success in the “scrappy slot guy” role in New England. Has it been Tom Brady and the system all along or has it been Wes Welker.  Even putting up 70% of Welker’s production would be excellent, so there’s definitely potential.

Eric Decker (DEN):  Decker was a huge piece of the Denver offense in 2012, and there’s no question he’ll play a big role going into this season.  The only downside for Decker is the introduction of Wes Welker to the offensive equation for the Broncos. Peyton Manning likes getting his weapons involved, so Decker will certainly still be viable. But, don’t expect the production from 2012.

Jason Avant (PHI):  There’s no telling what Jason Avant’s role will be in Chip Kelly’s new offense in Philadelphia. Oddly, he spent some time playing on the defensive side of the ball in OTAs. It’s far fetched to think they’ll be asking him to make that kind of switch, but who knows how he will fit. A healthy DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin should put Avant on the back burner for significant production potential.

Sidney Rice (SEA):  Rice still has potential in Seattle, but the signing of Harvin certainly changes things for him. The upside is that Harvin is going to be used in all kinds of packages and that could open up Rice to see some advantageous defensive matchups.

Malcolm Floyd (SD):  Malcolm Floyd could be settling into foreign territory in the 2013 season. New offensive coordinator, Ken Whisenhunt, may be asking Floyd to learn an all new route tree. His QB, Rivers, has been on a decline of late and the rise of Danario Alexander will also play into Floyd’s potential success in 2013.  I don’t really expect him to eclipse his 56 receptions for 814 yards from 2012.

Brandon Gibson (MIA):  Brandon Gibson signed as a Free Agent with the Miami Dolphins and seemed to be drastically under-performing in OTAs. He has some upside, but it’s disheartening to know a St. Louis team that needed some help in the receiver corps let him go.  Going forward it will be worthwhile to keep an eye on how he’s fitting into the offense for the Dolphins.


K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...

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