Punch Drunk Wonderland

IDP Mock Draft Analysis: ADP top 100 through 5 mocks

UPDATE: Please see ADP top 100 through 10 mocks for more up to date rankings.

Getting Defensive IDP Mock Drafts will be running all through the offseason. Check out the list of mocks running or available, and join if you like

It’s early April and the 2014 NFL Draft hasn’t even taken place yet. It’s definitely too early to be able to get a good picture as to what the Average Draft Position (ADP) landscape is going to look like for IDPs in 2014. That said, I’m just that crazy I guess. We’ve nearly completed five Getting Defensive IDP Mocks at MyFantasyLeague.com and we have enough data to see who the TOP 100 IDPs are at this point based on ADP.

Getting Defensive - Roster SetupThese mock drafts are 19 round snake drafts that involve all defensive players. The draft is approached as a redraft style draft, so there are no necessary dynasty considerations. The lineup and roster setup is to the right. For these mocks the scoring system is the PDW 2014 IDP Scoring System (you can find the specific scoring rules for a mock here). Each mock draft has 12 participating franchises. One of the 12 mocking franchises is an ADP Bot configured to auto-pick based on ADP data gathered thus far in the Getting Defensive IDP Mocks. You can find a link to a full rundown of all data gathered in these mocks below.

Getting Defensive IDP Mock ADP Data

Below is a quick write-up on the top 10 players so far based on ADP, and you can find a full table of ADP rankings at the end. The rankings are based off of an ADP Value (ADPV) determined by adding draft position from each draft (1.02, 2.11, etc.) and dividing by the number of mocks conducted (5 in this case).

Lavonte-David-01Lavonte David (TBB, LB) – ADPV: 1.022

David was the number one overall scorer in 2013 based on this scoring system with 328.5 fantasy points. That put him at the top by a fairly significant margin as he was 25 points above the next IDP (Karlos Dansby with 303.0). In each of his first two seasons he has been in the top 6 fantasy scorers in this format, and has been among the leaders in tackles. Through five mocks he was the first overall selection twice, and was selected 2nd, 3rd, and 4th overall once each.

J.J. Watt (HOU, DE) – ADPV: 1.022

Watt was the number one defensive end in fantasy scoring based on this system in 2013, and he blew the lid off the charts with his 2012 numbers. He was the number 11 overall scorer in 2013. Like David, through five mocks he was the first overall selection twice, and was selected 2nd, 3rd, and 4th overall once each.

Luke Kuechly (CAR, LB) – ADPV: 1.040

Kuechly was a top selection in 2013 fantasy IDP leagues, but got off to a slow start in terms of fantasy production. He finished the season ranked as the #7 fantasy scorer using this system. Kuechly remains an elite fantasy linebacker, and early signs show that mockers still believe him to be among the best IDPs out there.

Vontaze Burfict (CIN, LB) – ADPV: 1.042

Burfict came into his own and rose to the top of the IDP charts in 2013. He was the #4 fantasy scorer overall. Vontaze is now entering his third NFL season and is very much in his prime. Mockers have selected him in the top 6 in every mock thus far, and he has been taken as early as second overall.

Robert-Quinn-01Robert Quinn (STL, DE) – ADPV: 1.044

In this format there is a stark line of distinction between elite defensive ends and the rest of the field. Selections of Watt, Quinn, and Chandler Jones (NEP, DE) relatively early have been a common trend. Quinn finished the 2013 season as the #12 overall scorer and was just 0.5 fantasy points behind J.J. Watt. He looked solid last season and is part of a stout defense in St. Louis. All indications are that he’s in line for a solid season in his fourth year, and mockers are making their selections with that in mind thus far.

Paul Posluszny (JAC, LB) – ADPV: 1.074

Posluszny was the #5 fantasy scorer in this format in 2013. He’s a solid tackler and his position on a bad team means he spends a lot of time on the field. Thus far in the mocks he has been selected in the first round in every draft, and has been selected as high as second overall. Posluszny has remained one of the most consistent IDP options out there when it comes to tackles season in and season out. In his seven NFL seasons he has only fallen below 100 total tackles once, and he has been among the leaders in the league in tackles consistently for several years.

Kiko Alonso (BUF, LB) – ADPV: 1.076

Alonso burst onto the IDP scene as a rookie in 2013. He was the #6 overall fantasy IDP in this scoring system and he was a strong play for the majority of the season. He’s young and versatile and stands to have another good year in 2014. He’s been consistently selected between 5th and 10th overall thus far in the mocks.

Navorro Bowman (SF, LB) – ADPV: 1.090

Bowman was ranked 3rd among IDPs in 2013. The downside for him is that he will be coming off of injury and likely won’t be available until mid-season. Despite the delay, mockers have still been willing to take him as a first round selection consistently through five mocks. Look for his stock to slide as we draw closer to the season. He’s going to be a stash for later kind of asset that likely won’t be worth early picks.

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers; Bobby WagnerBobby Wagner (SEA, LB) – ADPV: 1.090

The Super Bowl champ finished the 2013 season ranked #31 among IDPs in this scoring system. He had a fine season, but owners were likely looking for numbers closer to those from 2012 in which he ranked 11th. That said, he’s put up a total of 120 or more total tackles in each of his first two NFL seasons. You can’t complain about those numbers. He’ll continue to be a solid elite IDP prospect in 2014.

Karlos Dansby (CLE, LB) – ADP Value: 1.454

Dansby was the #2 fantasy scorer in 2013, but early mocks reflect some uncertainty resultant of his free agent status and subsequent signing with Cleveland. At age 32 he is on the downside of his career, but he still has considerable upside. He has tallied 100+ total tackles in five of his last six NFL seasons, and he’s consistently been a top 20 IDP in this format for the last several years. Through five mocks he has been selected in the first round three times and has been taken as high as second overall.

Table is sortable

Rank Player/Tm/Pos Mock #1 Mock #2 Mock #3 Mock #4 Mock #5 ADPV
1 David, Lavonte TBB LB 1.04 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.01 1.022
2 Watt, J.J. HOU DE 1.02 1.04 1.01 1.01 1.03 1.022
3 Kuechly, Luke CAR LB 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.02 1.04 1.040
4 Burfict, Vontaze CIN LB 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.02 1.042
5 Quinn, Robert STL DE 1.01 1.05 1.03 1.08 1.05 1.044
6 Posluszny, Paul JAC LB 1.09 1.02 1.09 1.11 1.06 1.074
7 Alonso, Kiko BUF LB 1.07 1.09 1.10 1.05 1.07 1.076
8 Bowman, Navorro SFO LB 1.10 1.12 1.07 1.07 1.09 1.090
9 Wagner, Bobby SEA LB 1.08 1.07 1.12 1.10 1.08 1.090
10 Dansby, Karlos CLE LB 1.05 2.08 1.06 1.04 2.04 1.454
11 Washington, Daryl ARI LB 1.11 1.08 2.01 1.09 2.02 1.462
12 Johnson, Derrick KCC LB 1.12 1.11 2.04 2.02 2.07 1.672
13 Ogletree, Alec STL LB 2.06 1.10 2.03 2.03 2.05 1.854
14 Jones, Chandler NEP DE 2.09 2.06 1.08 2.06 2.06 1.870
15 Kendricks, Mychal PHI LB 2.05 2.02 2.02 3.01 1.12 2.044
16 Hardy, Greg CAR DE 3.06 2.01 2.10 1.12 2.03 2.064
17 Trevathan, Danny DEN LB 3.01 2.10 1.11 2.05 2.11 2.076
18 Laurinaitis, James STL LB 2.10 3.04 2.06 2.07 1.11 2.076
19 Lee, Sean DAL LB 2.03 2.03 3.01 2.04 2.01 2.224
20 Wilkerson, Muhammad NYJ DE 2.01 2.04 2.09 3.11 2.10 2.270
21 Miller, Von DEN LB 2.12 2.07 2.08 2.01 3.09 2.274
22 Willis, Patrick SFO LB 2.07 4.07 2.05 2.12 1.10 2.282
23 Freeman, Jerrell IND LB 2.11 2.11 3.03 2.10 3.02 2.474
24 Smith, Daryl BAL LB 2.08 3.03 2.07 3.04 3.08 2.660
25 Greenway, Chad MIN LB 3.03 4.08 2.12 2.09 2.12 2.688
26 Campbell, Calais ARI DE 4.09 2.09 3.02 2.08 3.04 2.864
27 Worrilow, Paul ATL LB 2.04 3.12 3.05 3.05 3.12 2.876
28 Houston, Justin KCC LB 3.02 2.05 4.09 3.07 3.03 3.052
29 Jordan, Cameron NOS DE 4.05 2.12 2.11 4.01 3.06 3.070
30 Cushing, Brian HOU LB 3.08 3.11 5.04 2.11 2.08 3.084
31 Briggs, Lance CHI LB 2.02 3.05 3.04 4.02 4.04 3.234
32 Ansah, Ezekiel DET DE 4.12 3.01 4.02 3.09 2.09 3.266
33 Levy, DeAndre DET LB 3.05 4.04 3.12 3.12 3.07 3.280
34 Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE 4.02 3.08 4.04 4.03 3.01 3.636
35 Mayo, Jerod NEP LB 3.04 4.12 5.08 3.02 3.05 3.662
36 Church, Barry DAL S 3.10 4.10 3.10 3.03 5.09 3.684
37 Davis, Thomas CAR LB 3.09 3.02 4.03 5.03 4.05 3.844
38 Richardson, Sheldon NYJ DE 4.11 3.07 4.06 4.07 5.08 4.078
39 Butler, Donald SDC LB 4.07 5.07 4.11 3.06 4.11 4.084
40 Timmons, Lawrence PIT LB 3.12 5.04 3.08 5.11 4.09 4.088
41 Wake, Cameron MIA DE 5.04 4.01 4.05 4.04 4.02 4.232
42 Pierre-Paul, Jason NYG DE 4.06 3.06 5.05 4.11 6.08 4.472
43 Riley, Perry WAS LB 5.10 4.11 5.01 3.10 5.06 4.476
44 Ninkovich, Rob NEP DE 5.09 3.09 5.12 4.08 5.03 4.482
45 Smith, Aldon SFO LB 3.07 4.06 7.05 5.05 4.08 4.662
46 Ryans, DeMeco PHI LB 5.02 5.09 3.06 5.12 5.07 4.672
47 Tulloch, Stephen DET LB 6.12 4.05 3.09 6.03 4.12 4.682
48 Ward, T.J. DEN S 5.05 5.10 4.01 6.01 4.03 4.840
49 Weddle, Eric SDC S 4.04 6.11 5.09 6.09 4.01 5.068
50 Matthews, Clay GBP LB 8.06 4.09 5.06 4.05 4.10 5.072
51 Ware, Demarcus DEN DE 3.11 5.05 4.08 6.02 7.10 5.072
52 Williams, Mario BUF DE 9.03 7.04 3.11 3.08 3.11 5.074
53 Smith, Harrison MIN S 4.03 5.01 6.05 4.12 7.05 5.252
54 Berry, Eric KCC S 4.01 6.01 5.02 7.02 5.01 5.414
55 Vernon, Olivier MIA DE 6.07 3.10 6.09 5.04 7.01 5.462
56 Thomas, Earl SEA S 5.06 6.06 6.01 7.11 3.10 5.468
57 Johnson, Charles CAR DE 5.08 4.03 5.07 5.01 9.05 5.648
58 Jackson, D’Qwell IND LB 6.01 7.02 4.12 6.10 5.04 5.658
59 Clowney, Jadeveon FA DE (R) 5.03 5.06 6.11 6.06 6.05 5.662
60 Roach, Nick OAK LB 9.04 7.12 3.07 4.06 5.10 5.678
61 Atkins, Geno CIN DT 5.11 6.03 6.06 8.02 5.05 6.054
62 Poe, Dontari KCC DT 7.02 6.07 5.11 5.07 7.04 6.062
63 Mathis, Robert IND LB 7.12 6.09 5.03 6.07 6.03 6.068
64 Allen, Jared CHI DE 5.12 6.12 8.10 7.06 4.07 6.094
65 Cyprien, Johnathan JAC S 6.05 7.08 6.08 7.01 5.02 6.248
66 Pollard, Bernard TEN S 7.04 6.02 6.07 7.04 6.07 6.448
67 Tuck, Justin OAK DE 7.05 5.03 6.04 5.06 9.09 6.454
68 Mathieu, Tyrann ARI S 8.02 7.10 4.07 7.07 6.11 6.474
69 Lofton, Curtis NOS LB 6.10 7.11 7.09 6.08 6.12 6.500
70 Heyward, Cameron PIT DE 10.06 5.08 8.03 5.02 5.12 6.662
71 Clayborn, Adrian TBB DE 8.04 4.02 9.10 4.09 8.11 6.672
72 Burnett, Morgan GBP S 6.09 8.04 8.12 7.10 4.06 6.682
73 Rolle, Antrel NYG S 6.08 6.10 5.10 9.11 7.08 6.694
74 Peterson, Patrick ARI CB 5.07 8.07 7.06 6.04 8.05 6.858
75 Hall, Deangelo WAS CB 6.03 7.05 8.01 7.03 7.07 7.038
76 Mack, Khalil FA LB (R) 8.03 8.03 4.10 9.07 6.02 7.050
77 Chancellor, Kam SEA S 6.06 7.06 6.10 8.01 8.09 7.064
78 Vaccaro, Kenny NOS S 6.11 7.07 8.05 6.05 8.07 7.070
79 Suh, Ndamukong DET DT 8.09 7.01 7.03 5.09 9.06 7.256
80 Barron, Mark TBB S 7.01 7.09 7.07 8.08 7.11 7.272
81 Dareus, Marcell BUF DT 6.04 5.12 7.04 9.02 10.04 7.452
82 Williams, Tramon GBP CB 9.05 7.03 6.03 8.12 7.12 7.470
83 Casey, Jurrell TEN DT 6.02 6.04 7.02 9.12 10.09 7.658
84 Burnett, Kevin OAK LB 7.10 8.10 6.02 11.03 6.06 7.662
85 McCoy, Gerald TBB DT 7.09 6.05 7.08 8.07 11.01 7.860
86 Houston, Lamarr CHI DE 8.12 5.02 11.06 4.10 11.07 7.874
87 Tillman, Charles CHI CB 4.10 9.05 8.09 9.05 10.08 8.074
88 Fairley, Nick DET DT 10.10 9.04 8.06 8.03 6.09 8.264
89 Johnson, Michael TBB DE 9.10 5.11 11.05 5.10 11.11 8.294
90 Williams, Kyle BUF DT 7.06 10.08 9.04 10.07 6.01 8.452
91 Jones, Reshad MIA S 7.11 10.11 8.08 7.05 10.06 8.482
92 Verner, Alterraun TBB CB 8.05 6.08 9.02 10.02 10.03 8.640
93 Foster, Mason TBB LB 9.09 8.06 12.01 7.12 7.03 8.662
94 Amukamara, Prince NYG CB 10.02 9.09 10.01 9.04 6.04 8.840
95 Bethea, Antoine SFO S 10.01 9.11 8.04 8.10 9.03 8.858
96 Weatherspoon, Sean ATL LB 5.01 10.04 8.11 12.03 10.07 9.052
97 Moore, William ATL S 7.08 12.01 10.10 8.11 8.12 9.084
98 Gipson, Tashaun CLE S 8.07 12.08 9.06 7.09 10.05 9.270
99 Milliner, Dee NYJ CB 10.04 9.03 7.10 11.11 9.12 9.280
100 Ihedigbo, James DET S 10.03 8.11 11.04 9.03 9.07 9.456

Rookies are denoted by (R)


K. Smelser About K. Smelser

Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine…

css.php