Punch Drunk Wonderland

2014 Wide Receiver Values on sub-par Offenses

Winning isn’t everything. Well, it is something pretty good.  It’s one thing to look at NFL teams and see where their offensive production gets them in the win/loss column, but it’s an altogether different animal when it comes to fantasy football. Some players may not be on winners in terms of NFL relevance, but they could be on fantasy football gold mines.

Our friends at numberFire.com have taken a look some key wide receivers that have upside while on below average offenses.

The average fantasy football owner is well aware of Peyton Manning and the peripheral production he creates for his offensive teammates. Demaryius Thomas is being hyped as a possible replacement for Calvin Johnson as the best receiver in football. Wes Welker is still a guy who could flirt with 90 receptions, assuming a healthy season. Julius Thomas, who was undrafted in some fantasy leagues before last season, is now routinely going in the third or fourth round.

Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are two more examples of signal-callers that raise the level of play of those around them, and therefore facilitate high-end fantasy production. But teams that lack top-tier quarterbacks and look subpar on paper can sometimes produce the value that is necessary to win fantasy titles – and make you look smarter than your league mates in the process.

As we prepare for our fantasy drafts in this season, it’s important for us to be aware of teams that may have confusing offensive situations that a majority of owners may choose to avoid because of the uncertainty associated with them. Profiting from the fear of the unknown can go a long way.

I have chosen three wide receivers who will likely be the main pass catchers on their respective teams, but who may be overlooked on draft day due to less than optimal offensive situations. It’s important to remember that the likelihood of any one of these guys becoming a high-end WR1s in fantasy is small. Check out JJ Zachariason’s study on wide receiver bust rates for a better understanding of what you can reasonably expect of guys being taken later in drafts.

But what these receivers can do for you is provide equity. At their current average draft position (ADP), it seems likely they’ll outperform their current draft cost, thus providing value for your fake football squads. All ADP info is based on full point-per-reception (PPR) scoring from My Fantasy League.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)

K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...