Punch Drunk Wonderland

Fantasy Football Roundtable: Who Should Be the Number One Receiver?

As the 2014 NFL season draws closer the fantasy drafts are looming.  We’ve already looked at who should potentially go number one overall, but now it’s time to talk specifically about receivers. Courtesy of numberFire.com we have a great roundtable discussion between J.J. Zachariason, Daniel Lindsey, and Sean Wirth covering the topic of who should be the number one wide receiver of 2014. I happen to agree with Daniel on this one. Expect Dez Bryant to have a big season.

Two words: Scott Linehan. After years helping out Calvin Johnson in Detroit, offensive coordinator Scott Linehan is now in Dallas with Dez Bryant. The Cowboys have never had more than 694 passing plays since 2000, while the Lions exceeded that number twice under Linehan. Volume, volume, volume.

Dez, you’re the next elite receiver in line for the Scott Linehan treatment. If Marc Trestman can turn around a quarterback and Norv Tuner can have success with tight ends, then Linehan has to be the number one wide receiver whisperer.

With more volume comes more opportunity. And given Bryan’ts catch rate, that should be a great thing. Over the last four seasons, Calvin Johnson has caught an average of 57.65% of his targets, while Bryant has seen one season below 60% on his way to catching 62.3% of his targets. There may be a little regression on Johnson’s numbers, but of the 74 receivers who have caught a pass over the last four seasons, Bryant has the 21st best catch rate; Johnson’s rate is in the middle of the pack at 37th.

So if Bryant sees just 10 to 15 more targets (which shouldn’t be hard with Linehan) and maintains his career average of 14.0 yards per reception, 1,400 – if not 1,500 – yards would not be out of question. That’s what we call upside, and that alone vaults him to the top of my fantasy football board as the number one receiver.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)


K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...