Punch Drunk Wonderland

Can Rashad Jennings Keep Up His Current Fantasy Football Pace?

Rashad Jennings did a good job in 2013 when filling in for Darren McFadden in Oakland, and many expected him to have good potential when moving to the New York Giants for the 2014 season. He’s been very good through the first three weeks as he finds himself as the #5 fantasy running back averaging 16.2 fantasy points per week. Can he keep up the pace? Our friends at numberFire.com have taken a look.

Through three games, Rashad Jennings is more than paying back fantasy owners who spent a top-five round pick on him, as he’s currently the fifth-best running back in standard scoring fantasy leagues. Using numberFire.com Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which helps determine how many points a player adds to his team’s overall score, Jennings has the eighth-best Rushing NEP and sixth-best Total NEP among backs with 30 or more touches, too. Here is Jennings’ progression from Weeks 1 through 3:

Week Rushes Rushing NEP Per Rush Success Rate Total NEP
1 16 0.59 0.04 31.25% 3.55
2 34 -1.35 -0.04 29.41% 1.18
3 68 4.50 0.07 47.06% 7.03

As you can see, his monster 176-yard, one touchdown performance in Week 3 against Houston improved his Rushing NEP from -1.35 to 4.50, and doubled his Total NEP score from Week 1. Jennings has been a revelation for the suddenly improving Giants offense, touching the ball 20 or more times in each of his first three games, providing useful touches as a receiver and stability to a backfield that sorely needed it.

By comparison, if Jennings didn’t take another snap in 2014, he, in three games, already has a higher Rushing and Total NEP score than any member of the 2013 Giants backfield. Fantasy experts were critical of Jennings’ expected contributions heading into 2014, as he’s approaching the critical age of 30 and had never handled 200 or more touches in either of his two previous stops. But Jennings was actually really good last year, providing the 18th highest Total NEP among running backs with 90 or more touches and the 7th-highest Rushing NEP among running backs with 100 or more carries.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)


K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...