Punch Drunk Wonderland

What to do with Dorial Green-Beckham

Dorial Green-Beckham has wowed at the 2015 NFL Combine and now teams have to decide on his value as a rookie prospect. 6’5″, 237 pounds, and sub 4.50 40 yard dash speed is daunting. However, how does that relate to NFL potential? Our friends at numberFire.com have taken a look at the Dorial Green-Beckham conundrum and weighed in.

Scouts, NFL teams, and analysts are drawn to measurables, and we know a wide receivers size — particularly their weight — correlates to touchdowns. But projecting a prospects’ potential solely on height and weight is too easy of a proposition, and doesn’t exactly live in reality. There are other variables to factor: production, metrics, what you see on the field and what you see off it all mesh together to create an assessment of a prospect’s overall potential in the NFL.

What you want to find is where a prospect excels at most, or something that sets him apart from others. For Dorial Green-Beckham, it’s his size.

But as noted before, size alone rarely means success. Sure, he’s already going to be taller and heavier than every defensive back that covers him, but does Green-Beckham use his size to his advantage? Did he produce in college? Adjusting for height and weight, how athletic is he?

Notwithstanding major off-the-field issues that leads to the overall conundrum that we’ll discuss at the end, let’s take all of these variables and see how one of the most enamoring prospects in the 2015 draft projects at the next level.

The Metrics: A Freak Athlete?

Since 1999, only 15 wide receiver prospects have tested at the combine and weighed more than 230 pounds while measuring over 6 feet, 4 inches tall. As referenced earlier, Dorial Green-Beckham is 6’5”, 237 pounds, so he fits in the top two percent of wide receivers on sheer height and weight alone. Here are his measurables against these prospects:

Name Weight 40-yd Vert Broad 3Cone 20-yd shuttle
Green-Beckham 237 4.49 33.5 in. 119 in. 6.89 4.45
Size Adj. Average 236.3 4.56 35.4 in. 122 in. 7.11 4.32

So, Green-Beckham is clearly a cut above in terms of raw speed for his size. He’s also pretty agile for pass-catchers his size, as his 3-cone of 6.89 is well above the size-adjusted average of 7.11. However, where Green-Beckham starts to lose ground to the field is in his leaping ability. His vertical leap of 33.5 is solid — he’s closer to Plaxico Burress (33 inches) and Kelvin Benjamin (32.5 inches) — but is further away from Vincent Jackson (39 inches) and physical freak, Calvin Johnson (42.5 inches).

Dorial Green-Beckham had great combine. He gained 12 pounds in his season away from college football in 2014, and is in fantastic shape considering he hasn’t stepped on a football field in close to a year and a half. His height-adjusted speed and agility test well, but he’s probably less of a Megatron-clone in terms of sheer athleticism, and is more of a hybrid between Vincent Jackson, Plaxico Burress and the 6’3” Arizona Cardinals’ wideout, Michael Floyd.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)


K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...