Punch Drunk Wonderland

Week 7 Daily Fantasy Deals

Week 7 is here and the bye weeks are still rolling on. Time to dig into those daily fantasy bargains. Each week we’ll be providing insights and tips for your Fan Duel and Draft Kings rosters courtesy of our friends at numberFire. Good luck!

Week 7 Fantasy Bargains

Brian Hoyer ($6,900)

Brian Hoyer, as long as he holds onto the incredibly fragile title of starting quarterback in Houston, has a surprising amount of upside this week.

After finishing 2014 as the most run-heavy team in the league, the Texans have completely changed their tune for 2015. They have a 1.73 pass-run ratio, and have run a league-high 288 passing plays. This pass-heavy approach has been consistent in the red zone as well, and they lead the league with 40 red zone passing plays. So not only is Hoyer going to get plenty of volume, but he’s going to have plenty of scoring chances.

Hoyer has found the end zone multiple times in each of his last three games, and has exceeded 20 fantasy points in his last two. He has also been very efficient this season. Among the 32 quarterbacks to record at least 100 drop backs, Hoyer’s 0.25 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) per drop back ranks an impressive sixth.

In addition to this, he’s got a fairly soft matchup to exploit against the Miami Dolphins, who rank only 23rd in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play.

Danny Woodhead ($6,000)

Until we see a Danny Woodhead blow-up and subsequent price jump, I’m considering just titling this column “Danny Woodhead and 6 Other FanDuel Bargains”.

He was quiet last week from a fantasy standpoint, not cracking 10 points, but all the reasons to be high on him are still there.

Woodhead has been the best back in San Diego, and Melvin Gordon has been largely disappointing. Of the 62 backs this season to run the ball at least 20 times, Gordon ranks 57th with a -0.23 Rushing NEP per carry, while Woodhead’s -0.02 is good for 28th. Woodhead is also one of the best receiving backs out there, and his 0.58 Reception NEP per target is the best in the league among backs with at least 20 targets.

The Chargers coaches seem to be realizing this talent discrepancy, as Gordon was benched after his second fumble last week, and for the first time this season, Woodhead had as many carries as Gordon did (seven), while Woodhead also tallied seven targets in the passing game to zero for Gordon.

Woodhead is also a weekly threat to find the end zone, even multiple times. He’s far and away the Chargers top back in the red zone, recording 12 of the team’s 16 red zone rushing attempts, and also has 3 red zone targets to his name.

Theo Riddick ($5,200)

Theo Riddick has led the Lions’ backfield in snaps in each of the last two weeks, and with seven carries last week, he saw a good chunk of the ground work for the first time.

Even when he’s not getting involved on the ground, Riddick has a sizable role in the offense, and his 42 targets are the third most in Detroit. That’s also the most of any running back this season.

He’s been very inefficient running the ball, but he ranks seventh among the 20 running backs to see at least 20 targets in the passing game this year with a Reception NEP per target of 0.45.

The pickings are slim when it comes to low-priced running backs this week, and with his big target share, Riddick is as safe a bet as you’re going to get at his price point and offers solid value.

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K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...