Punch Drunk Wonderland

Fantasy Sleepers for Week 11

Week 11 is here and now is when we separate the wheat from the chaff in our season long fantasy leagues. Let’s take a look at some high potential fantasy sleepers going into Week 11 via our friends at numberFire.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Matthew Stafford and the Detroit Lions have been a trainwreck this season.

Despite last week’s win, the Lions sit at 2-7 and Stafford has been a large part of the problem. With a Passing Net Expected Points (NEP) of -5.85, Stafford ranks 28th out of the 32 quarterbacks that have recorded at least 150 pass plays this year.

This week we need to forget all of that though, as help is on the way. That help comes in the form of the dreadful Oakland Raiders secondary.

The Raiders secondary are second worst in the league in terms of our Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play metric. Their troubles on defense have translated into the sixth most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks per game.

Stafford and the Lions will take on the Raiders in Detroit this weekend, which bodes well for his owners. He has averaged more than four additional fantasy points at home this season than on the road (or in London).

With a healthy over/under of 48.5, there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Stafford this week.

Mark Sanchez, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

After all of that offseason drama, here we are again. Mr. Butt-Fumble himself, Mark Sanchez will once again be taking over as the starting quarterback in Philadelphia.

All joking aside, the Sanchize actually proved to be a far superior fantasy asset at the helm of this offense than Sam Bradford has been thus far this season.

Having posted multiple touchdowns in seven of the nine games he appeared in last year, Sanchez gets a nice matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week. The Buccaneers are the owners of the seventh-worst Adjusted Passing NEP per play on the year and have surrendered six multi-touchdown games this season.

As the Buccaneers boast the third best run defense — in terms of our Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play metric — the Eagles will likely look to the air to take down Tampa Bay. While Jeremy Maclin is no longer around, this Eagles offense still has plenty of familiar faces that will be at Sanchez’s disposal in Week 11.

Antonio Andrews, RB, Tennessee Titans

What Antonio Andrews has lacked in efficiency this season — he ranks 29th in Rushing NEP per play among running backs with at least 80 carries — he makes up for in opportunity, having averaged over 15 carries per game over the previous three weeks.

While the Jaguars have been great on a per carry basis this season — having allowed a league best 3.3 yards per carry and they are 7th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play — they have allowed the 10th most fantasy points to running backs this year.

Andrews is a pure volume play, assuming Tennessee can stay competitive on Thursday night, they’ve shown a willingness to feed him the ball. After registering eight total yards last week, Andrews does possess risk. However Jacksonville’s struggles stopping teams through the air — fourth worst in terms of Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play — offers upside that Andrews and the Titans may find themselves in the red zone a few times, increasing his odds at a touchdown.

Jay Ajayi, RB, Miami Dolphins

Jay Ajayi truthers had to wait a long time, but it appears it may have been worth it.

Ajayi has looked explosive in his limited action so far. The rookie has posted 89 yards on only 11 carries in his first two games of the season.

While Lamar Miller clearly has a solid grip on the job, if Ajayi is able to see 8 to 10 carries against the Cowboys this week, his owners should see great returns.

With Sean Lee likely to return to the lineup this week the Cowboys defense will see a boost, but the fact remains that this run defense has been the second worst unit in terms of Defensive Rushing NEP per play this season.

Continue reading at numberFire.com… (@numberfire)

 

 

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