Punch Drunk Wonderland

You Shouldn’t Trust Maurice Jones-Drew in Fantasy Football This Year

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Maurice Jones-Drew was once a household name when it comes to top fantasy running backs. For 2014 he’s moved on to Oakland where he’ll be teamed up with Darren McFadden in an interesting backfield situation. Will Jones-Drew return to form? Will he fade into RBBC obscurity? Will the injury woes continue?

Our friends at numberfire.com have taken a look and it’s not looking good for MJD.

Maurice Jones-Drew was a first-round fantasy staple for years. Now that the 29-year-old back has signed in Oakland, however, he’s in a completely different situation than he’s ever seen. And as a result, he’s been going all over the place in fantasy football drafts, as his average draft position shows that people aren’t quite sure how he will fare in Oakland. But looking at the numbers paints a pretty clear picture.

Lack of Efficiency

A big part of MJD’s fantasy success in the past has been volume based. Here’s how he’s stacked up as of late when looking at running backs that play at least 25% of their teams’ snaps:

 

Year Fantasy Points/Snap Rank Among RBs
2013 0.29 36th
2012 0.34 28th
2011 0.41 19th
2010 0.36 31st

 

This lack of efficiency is also reflected in his Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) numbers. Last season, Jones-Drew finished 53rd in Rushing NEP among the 67 running backs with 50 or more carries. In his injury-shortened 2012, he finished 27th, and even in 2011 when he won the rushing title, he finished only 32nd among qualifying running backs.

Continue reading at numberfire.com… (@numberfire)

 

K. Smelser About K. Smelser
Kelly Smelser is Owner/Senior Writer for Punch Drunk Wonderland and PDFantasy Sports. Architect of the PDW fantasy football world and general spinster of NFL and Fantasy Football news and analysis. Long walks on the beach, sunsets, and other such niceties are also fine...

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